Lets see how these stats pan out in a few years shall we?

International
Development Group's Q3 report on the future of the game industry has
been released, and Next-Gen has some exclusive highlights and stats.

The full report details annual predicted hardware and software sales
across all formats in every major North American and Western European
territory through to the end of the decade, as well as average sales
prices and predicted sales of digital downloads.
 
IDG and
Next-Gen have collaborated to bring you a small portion of the detailed
report, with an emphasis here on Xbox 360, Wii and PS3 in the U.S. The
full report also covers handhelds and PC games in dozens of countries.
You can get more information, and order the report here.

 

image copyright IDG.

Xbox 360
 
"Sales
of Xbox 360 hardware have remained on a path to achieving an estimated
4.9 million units sold  through in North America in 2006 – a
significant improvement over the original Xbox’s first full calendar 
year of 3.4 million units.
 
However, sales still trail the PS2’s
impressive “GTA‐fueled” 6.1 million units in its first full calendar
year of 2001, and the system continues to be outsold on a monthly basis
by the PS2 today. The 2006 holiday season will prove particularly
important as the industry’s first live test of next‐ generation console
market share.
 
IDG does not anticipate a price reduction on the
core Xbox 360 hardware in 2006, but bundling at the  retailer level
seems likely. Sales should also benefit from the constricted supply of
both PS3 and Wii. The installed base of the Xbox 360 is also projected
to lead all other next‐gen platforms until 2009."
 
ESTIMATED NORTH AMERICA HARDWARE SALES and INSTALLED BASE
 

2006
4.9 Million / 5.6 million

2007
6 Million / 11.6 million

2008
5.3 million / 16.9 million

2009
4.1 million / 21.1 million

2010
2.8 million / 23.9 million

 
PlayStation 3
 
"The PlayStation 3 launch
continues to weather difficult news however, such as the delay of the
European launch to Spring 2007 and a pre‐launch price reduction on PS3
hardware in the Japan market generally  perceived to be reactive to
Japanese consumer sentiment. IDG has adjusted its forecast model to
account  for the new launch statistics, and the ripple‐through effects
are substantial.
 
Sony may be unable to catch Microsoft’s
installed base lead from the Xbox 360 until 2010. For the industry as a
whole, however, the  smaller launch inventory is not expected to
significantly impact total market size for 2006 or 2007, as  spending
will likely just shift to substitute products.
 
From a market
share perspective, a more balanced market structure between the three
new consoles now seems even more probable. Publishers appear to have
adjusted their portfolios to minimize exposure from any individual
system (although Microsoft recently announced several 360‐exclusive
third party console titles).
 
IDG’s projections show that Sony will still “win” the race, as its brand remains strong
(particularly
so in several European markets). However, winning the race may only
mean being on the larger side of a 55/45 split, and will be a longer
and more difficult battle."
 
ESTIMATED NORTH AMERICA HARDWARE SALES and INSTALLED BASE
 
2006
0.9 Million / 0.9 million

2007
5.6 million / 6.5 million

2008
6.3 million / 12.7 million

2009
5.6 million / 18.4 million

2010
5.2 million / 23.5 million
 
Nintendo Wii
 
"Nintendo’s
confirmation of a global Wii launch in November/December and Sony’s
reduced launch quantities have given many observers an increased degree
of confidence in Wii’s prospects for 2006 and 2007. Nintendo certainly
stands to benefit from reduced PS3 inventories in North America and
Europe, and the reintroduction of the launch bundle makes Wii the only
self‐contained gaming gift option.
 
The bundling of Wii Sports
is likely to dampen initial software‐to‐hardware tie ratios however, at
least for early purchases. This is only an issue for third party
publishers, since Nintendo still benefits from the sale. IDG does not
expect the bundle to reduce the tie ratio by a full software unit as
many consumers can still be expected to purchase an initial library of
games – particularly given the system’s position as theleast expensive
of the three new platforms."
 
ESTIMATED NORTH AMERICA HARDWARE SALES and INSTALLED BASE
 
2006
1.1 Million / 1.1 million

2007
3.4 million / 4.5 million

2008
3.9 million / 8.4 million

2009
3.1 million / 11.4 million

2010
2.2 million / 13.6 million